Palmeiras sit top of the Serie A table and carry genuine momentum into this fixture, though their recent form has softened slightly with three draws in their last five. At home they are a productive side, averaging nearly two goals per game, and their BTTS rate of 75% stands well above the league average of 59%, suggesting they tend to play in open, scoring affairs even when conceding.

Chapecoense arrive in desperate shape, rooted to the bottom of the table with four defeats in their last five away from home. They have kept no clean sheets on the road all season, conceding 1.7 goals per game in away fixtures, and their over 2.5 rate of just 17% on the road reflects how often they are simply shutting up shop and absorbing pressure rather than contributing to high-scoring games.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, the form and positional gap does most of the talking here. The visitors look severely outmatched, and this game looks more one-sided than a competitive league fixture might suggest.