Palmeiras vs Bragantino — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Palmeiras
63%
Draw
21%
Bragantino
16%
Expected goals
1.98–0.85
Palmeiras · Bragantino
Palmeiras win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.7%), 1–0 (10.9%), 1–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Palmeiras score at least twice in 59%; Bragantino in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Bragantino goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Palmeiras goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market reference | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.53 |
| Draw | 4.39 |
| Bragantino | 5.82 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Bragantino
| 28 Jan | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Corinthians | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Athletico-PR | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Mar | A | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | BragantinovsPalmeiras | 0 – 1 |
Palmeiras: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Palmeiras (Home · 15 matches) | Bragantino (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 31.2% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.53 | 2.12 |
Home stats use Palmeiras's home record; away stats use Bragantino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.