Mirassol vs Vitoria — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 34.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mirassol
56%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Vitoria
19%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mirassol win. Expected goals 1.68–0.96 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.3%), 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (11.1%). It finished 2–2.
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Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mirassol (Home · 17 matches) | Vitoria (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.76 |
Home stats use Mirassol's home record; away stats use Vitoria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.