Mirassol vs Sao Paulo — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mirassol
41%
Draw
29%
Sao Paulo
30%
Expected goals
1.35–1.19
Mirassol · Sao Paulo
Mirassol win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mirassol score at least twice in 39%; Sao Paulo in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Sao Paulo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mirassol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market reference | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Mirassol | 2.37 |
| Draw | 3.26 |
| Sao Paulo | 3.13 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.39–1.15 → 1.35–1.19
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Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | Sao PaulovsMirassol | 1 – 0 |
Mirassol: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Mirassol (Home · 16 matches) | Sao Paulo (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 68.8% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Mirassol's home record; away stats use Sao Paulo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.