Mirassol vs Palmeiras — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mirassol
25%
Draw
29%
result
Palmeiras
47%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palmeiras win. Expected goals 1.15–1.66 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mirassol (Home · 15 matches) | Palmeiras (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 73.3% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 53.3% |
| Clean sheet | 13.3% | 46.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Mirassol's home record; away stats use Palmeiras's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.