🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·21:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Palmeiras | 2.06 | 2.06 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMirassol
25%
Draw
29%
Palmeiras
47%
Mirassol 1.09 xGexpected goals1.53 xG Palmeiras
Palmeiras win 47% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.7%).
Mirassol score at least twice in 29%; Palmeiras in 45%.
1–1 13.7%0–1 10.4%1–2 9.7%0–0 8.5%0–2 8.4%1–0 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 13.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Mirassol goals · columns = Palmeiras goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Mirassol clean sheet21%
Palmeiras clean sheet34%
Mirassol score 2+29%
Palmeiras score 2+45%
Mirassol score 3+10%
Model vs market
| Source | Mirassol | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 25% | 29% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 29% | 47% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | PalmeirasvsMirassol | 1 – 0 |
Mirassol: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Mirassol (Home) | Palmeiras (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 41.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Mirassol's home record; away stats use Palmeiras's away record this season.