Two sides anchored to the bottom of Serie A meet in a fixture that could have serious relegation consequences. Mirassol have won just once in their last five at home and are conceding heavily, keeping a clean sheet in none of their home games this season. Chapecoense arrive in even worse shape, winless in five away outings and averaging a meagre 0.4 goals on the road, which is well below the league average.

The goal data here pulls in opposite directions. Mirassol's home matches have seen BTTS land at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%, both notably above the league average. Chapecoense away, however, have gone under 2.5 in 80% of their road trips with BTTS at just 40%, well below the norm. Neither side has kept a single clean sheet.

With no head-to-head history to draw on, this is genuinely hard to read, but the visiting attack looks toothless enough to keep the scoring low. The tension of a relegation six-pointer may make this tighter and more cautious than expected.