Mirassol vs Atletico-MG — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 14 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mirassol
47%
Draw
27%
Atletico-MG
27%
Expected goals
1.47–1.10
Mirassol · Atletico-MG
Mirassol win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Mirassol win is 1–0 (11.2%).
Mirassol score at least twice in 44%; Atletico-MG in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Atletico-MG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mirassol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Mirassol | 2.07 |
| Draw | 3.54 |
| Atletico-MG | 3.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 08 Nov · 05:14 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Atletico-MG
| 28 Jan | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Remo | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 16 May 26 | Atletico-MGvsMirassol | 3 – 1 |
Mirassol: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Mirassol (Home · 17 matches) | Atletico-MG (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 35.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Mirassol's home record; away stats use Atletico-MG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.