Internacional vs Santos — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Internacional
48%
top pick
Draw
29%
Santos
23%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Santos win 23.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Internacional win. Expected goals 1.50–1.04 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (11.7%), 2–1 (10.3%). It finished 2–3.
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Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Internacional (Home · 17 matches) | Santos (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 82.4% |
| Clean sheet | 35.3% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.29 | 3.24 |
Home stats use Internacional's home record; away stats use Santos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.