Internacional vs Coritiba — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Internacional
63%
Draw
22%
Coritiba
15%
Expected goals
1.95–0.92
Internacional · Coritiba
Internacional win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.1%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Internacional score at least twice in 59%; Coritiba in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Coritiba goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Internacional goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market reference | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Internacional | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.29 |
| Coritiba | 5.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 9 May 26 | CoritibavsInternacional | 2 – 2 |
Internacional: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Internacional (Home · 16 matches) | Coritiba (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 37.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Internacional's home record; away stats use Coritiba's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.