Internacional vs Botafogo RJ — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Internacional
49%
Draw
25%
Botafogo RJ
26%
Expected goals
1.46–1.04
Internacional · Botafogo RJ
Internacional win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.6%), 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Internacional score at least twice in 44%; Botafogo RJ in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Botafogo RJ goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Internacional goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 25% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Internacional | 1.93 |
| Draw | 3.64 |
| Botafogo RJ | 3.51 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.54–0.97 → 1.46–1.04
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Botafogo RJ
| 30 Jan | H | vs Cruzeiro | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 3–5 | L |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 25 Apr 26 | Botafogo RJvsInternacional | 2 – 2 |
Internacional: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Internacional (Home · 15 matches) | Botafogo RJ (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 53.3% |
| Clean sheet | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.93 |
Home stats use Internacional's home record; away stats use Botafogo RJ's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.