Gremio vs Vasco — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gremio
31%
Draw
29%
Vasco
40%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Vasco win 39.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vasco win. Expected goals 1.27–1.44 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–2 (8.7%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gremio (Home · 17 matches) | Vasco (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Gremio's home record; away stats use Vasco's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.