Gremio vs Palmeiras — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gremio
23%
Draw
26%
result
Palmeiras
51%
top pick
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palmeiras win. Expected goals 1.00–1.70 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 0–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.3%). It finished 0–0.
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Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gremio (Home · 17 matches) | Palmeiras (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 52.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.24 |
Home stats use Gremio's home record; away stats use Palmeiras's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.