Gremio vs Chapecoense-SC — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gremio
62%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Chapecoense-SC
15%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Gremio win 62.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gremio win. Expected goals 1.85–0.84 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.7%), 2–0 (12.0%), 2–1 (10.7%). It finished 3–1.
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Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gremio (Home · 14 matches) | Chapecoense-SC (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 46.7% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Gremio's home record; away stats use Chapecoense-SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.