🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·21:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.16 | 4.16 |
| Chapecoense-SC | 6.03 | 6.03 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGremio
63%
Draw
22%
Chapecoense-SC
15%
Gremio 1.83 xGexpected goals0.82 xG Chapecoense-SC
Gremio win 63% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.1%).
Gremio score at least twice in 55%; Chapecoense-SC in 20%.
1–0 13.1%2–0 12.2%1–1 10.7%2–1 10.7%0–0 7.3%3–0 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Gremio goals · columns = Chapecoense-SC goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Gremio clean sheet44%
Chapecoense-SC clean sheet15%
Gremio score 2+55%
Chapecoense-SC score 2+20%
Gremio score 3+27%
Model vs market
| Source | Gremio | Draw | Chapecoense-SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 25% | 15% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 22% | 15% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 16 Mar 26 | Chapecoense-SCvsGremio | 1 – 1 |
Gremio: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Gremio (Home) | Chapecoense-SC (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.36 |
Home stats use Gremio's home record; away stats use Chapecoense-SC's away record this season.