Fluminense vs Vasco — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fluminense
44%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Vasco
28%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Fluminense win 43.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fluminense win. Expected goals 1.59–1.10 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–0 (8.5%), 2–0 (8.0%). It finished 1–0.
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Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fluminense (Home · 17 matches) | Vasco (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Fluminense's home record; away stats use Vasco's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.