Flamengo RJ vs Fluminense — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Flamengo RJ
67%
Draw
20%
Fluminense
12%
Expected goals
2.08–0.80
Flamengo RJ · Fluminense
Flamengo RJ win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.4%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Flamengo RJ score at least twice in 62%; Fluminense in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Fluminense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Flamengo RJ goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 22% | 14% |
| Market reference | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 67% | 20% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ | 1.44 |
| Draw | 4.58 |
| Fluminense | 7.25 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Flamengo RJ
| 29 Jan | A | vs Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 3–0 | W |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | FluminensevsFlamengo RJ | 1 – 2 |
Flamengo RJ: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Flamengo RJ (Home · 14 matches) | Fluminense (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Flamengo RJ's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.