Flamengo RJ vs Corinthians — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 36.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Flamengo RJ
72%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Corinthians
9%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Flamengo RJ win 72.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Flamengo RJ win. Expected goals 2.06–0.70 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (14.1%), 1–0 (14.1%), 2–1 (11.2%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Flamengo RJ
| 29 Jan | A | vs Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 3–0 | W |
Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Flamengo RJ (Home · 17 matches) | Corinthians (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 47.1% | 29.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.53 |
Home stats use Flamengo RJ's home record; away stats use Corinthians's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.