🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Draw | 4.94 | 4.94 |
| Botafogo RJ | 7.03 | 7.03 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketFlamengo RJ
69%
Draw
19%
Botafogo RJ
13%
Flamengo RJ 2.01 xGexpected goals0.84 xG Botafogo RJ
Flamengo RJ win 69% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12.8%).
Flamengo RJ score at least twice in 62%; Botafogo RJ in 20%.
1–0 12.8%2–0 12.4%2–1 12.2%1–1 8.9%3–0 7.4%3–1 7.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Flamengo RJ goals · columns = Botafogo RJ goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score51%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Flamengo RJ clean sheet43%
Botafogo RJ clean sheet12%
Flamengo RJ score 2+62%
Botafogo RJ score 2+20%
Flamengo RJ score 3+32%
Model vs market
| Source | Flamengo RJ | Draw | Botafogo RJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 19% | 13% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Flamengo RJ
| 29 Jan | A | vs Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 3–0 | W |
Botafogo RJ
| 30 Jan | H | vs Cruzeiro | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 3–5 | L |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 14 Mar 26 | Botafogo RJvsFlamengo RJ | 0 – 3 |
Flamengo RJ: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Flamengo RJ (Home) | Botafogo RJ (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.70 | 3.08 |
Home stats use Flamengo RJ's home record; away stats use Botafogo RJ's away record this season.