Flamengo RJ vs Botafogo RJ — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Flamengo RJ
71%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Botafogo RJ
11%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Flamengo RJ win 70.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Flamengo RJ win. Expected goals 2.04–0.79 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.5%), 2–0 (13.1%), 2–1 (12.3%). It finished 3–0.
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Flamengo RJ
| 29 Jan | A | vs Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 3–0 | W |
Botafogo RJ
| 30 Jan | H | vs Cruzeiro | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 3–5 | L |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Flamengo RJ (Home · 14 matches) | Botafogo RJ (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Flamengo RJ's home record; away stats use Botafogo RJ's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.