Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Flamengo RJ
74%
Draw
16%
Atletico-MG
10%
Expected goals
2.22–0.74
Flamengo RJ · Atletico-MG
Flamengo RJ win 74% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.5%), 1–0 (12.2%), 2–1 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Flamengo RJ score at least twice in 67%; Atletico-MG in 17%.
Scoreline distribution
Atletico-MG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Flamengo RJ goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market reference | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Metis Forecast | 74% | 16% | 10% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ | 1.31 |
| Draw | 5.58 |
| Atletico-MG | 9.16 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Flamengo RJ
| 29 Jan | A | vs Sao Paulo | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 3–0 | W |
Atletico-MG
| 28 Jan | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Remo | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Apr 26 | Atletico-MGvsFlamengo RJ | 0 – 4 |
Flamengo RJ: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Flamengo RJ (Home · 15 matches) | Atletico-MG (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 53.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Flamengo RJ's home record; away stats use Atletico-MG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.