Cruzeiro vs Remo — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cruzeiro
70%
Draw
17%
Remo
12%
Expected goals
2.20–0.80
Cruzeiro · Remo
Cruzeiro win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cruzeiro score at least twice in 65%; Remo in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Remo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cruzeiro goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market reference | 70% | 17% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 17% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.38 |
| Draw | 5.34 |
| Remo | 7.55 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Cruzeiro
| 6 Sept | H | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
Remo
| 28 Jan | A | vs Vitoria | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Atletico-MG | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Fluminense | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 25 Apr 26 | RemovsCruzeiro | 0 – 1 |
Cruzeiro: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Cruzeiro (Home · 15 matches) | Remo (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 26.7% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Cruzeiro's home record; away stats use Remo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.