Cruzeiro head into this fixture in strong home form, winning four of their last five at home and averaging 1.6 goals scored per game there this season. Their defensive record is reasonably solid too, keeping a clean sheet in 38% of home matches. Chapecoense arrive in dire straits, rooted to the foot of the table and winless in their last five away games, conceding an average of 1.7 per match on the road while failing to keep a single clean sheet away from home all season.

The goals picture is interesting. Cruzeiro's home BTTS rate of 62% sits above the league average, but Chapecoense's away Over 2.5 rate of just 17% is drastically below the league norm of 49%, suggesting their away games tend to be low-scoring affairs even when they lose. This match looks tighter in terms of goal volume than Cruzeiro's form might imply, though the home side are clearly the stronger outfit and the visitors look vulnerable at the bottom.