Cruzeiro vs Athletico-PR — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cruzeiro
53%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Athletico-PR
21%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Cruzeiro win 53.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cruzeiro win. Expected goals 1.59–0.96 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.4%), 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 3–1.
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Cruzeiro
| 6 Sept | H | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cruzeiro (Home · 17 matches) | Athletico-PR (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.82 |
Home stats use Cruzeiro's home record; away stats use Athletico-PR's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.