Coritiba vs Mirassol — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Coritiba
40%
top pick
Draw
29%
Mirassol
31%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Mirassol win 31.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Coritiba win. Expected goals 1.36–1.18 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.0%). It finished 1–2.
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Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Coritiba (Home · 17 matches) | Mirassol (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.53 | 2.41 |
Home stats use Coritiba's home record; away stats use Mirassol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.