Coritiba vs Gremio — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Coritiba
44%
Draw
26%
Gremio
29%
Expected goals
1.53–1.24
Coritiba · Gremio
Coritiba win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Coritiba win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Coritiba score at least twice in 46%; Gremio in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Gremio goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Coritiba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Coritiba | 2.17 |
| Draw | 3.59 |
| Gremio | 3.24 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | GremiovsCoritiba | 1 – 0 |
Coritiba: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Coritiba (Home · 15 matches) | Gremio (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.13 |
Home stats use Coritiba's home record; away stats use Gremio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.