Coritiba vs Botafogo RJ — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Coritiba
37%
Draw
27%
Botafogo RJ
37%
Expected goals
1.34–1.46
Coritiba · Botafogo RJ
Botafogo RJ win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Coritiba score at least twice in 39%; Botafogo RJ in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Botafogo RJ goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Coritiba goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market reference | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 27% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Coritiba | 2.62 |
| Draw | 3.55 |
| Botafogo RJ | 2.60 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Botafogo RJ
| 30 Jan | H | vs Cruzeiro | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 3–5 | L |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | Botafogo RJvsCoritiba | 2 – 2 |
Coritiba: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Coritiba (Home · 14 matches) | Botafogo RJ (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Coritiba's home record; away stats use Botafogo RJ's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.