Coritiba vs Athletico-PR — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Coritiba
30%
Draw
30%
result
Athletico-PR
40%
top pick
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Athletico-PR win. Expected goals 1.19–1.35 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–1 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.3%). It finished 3–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Coritiba (Home · 17 matches) | Athletico-PR (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.53 | 2.82 |
Home stats use Coritiba's home record; away stats use Athletico-PR's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.