Corinthians vs Santos — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Corinthians
51%
top pick
Draw
28%
Santos
21%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Santos win 20.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Corinthians win. Expected goals 1.48–0.95 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.9%), 1–1 (13.3%), 2–1 (11.0%). It finished 0–1.
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Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Corinthians (Home · 15 matches) | Santos (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 78.6% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.07 | 3.29 |
Home stats use Corinthians's home record; away stats use Santos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.