🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Santos | 4.51 | 4.51 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketCorinthians
52%
Draw
28%
Santos
21%
Corinthians 1.50 xGexpected goals0.94 xG Santos
Corinthians win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.5%).
Corinthians score at least twice in 45%; Santos in 24%.
1–0 13.5%1–1 13.2%2–1 10.6%2–0 10.0%0–0 9.5%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Corinthians goals · columns = Santos goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score49%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Corinthians clean sheet39%
Santos clean sheet21%
Corinthians score 2+45%
Santos score 2+24%
Corinthians score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Corinthians | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 28% | 21% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | SantosvsCorinthians | 1 – 1 |
Corinthians: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Corinthians (Home) | Santos (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.92 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Corinthians's home record; away stats use Santos's away record this season.