Corinthians vs Fluminense — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Corinthians
44%
top pick
Draw
30%
Fluminense
25%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Fluminense win 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Corinthians win. Expected goals 1.34–1.03 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 1–0 (12.7%), 0–0 (10.4%). It finished 1–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Corinthians (Home · 17 matches) | Fluminense (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.2% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 35.3% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 2.88 |
Home stats use Corinthians's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.