Chapecoense-SC vs Vasco — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 14 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chapecoense-SC
17%
Draw
22%
Vasco
61%
Expected goals
0.93–1.79
Chapecoense-SC · Vasco
Vasco win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (11.8%), 0–2 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Chapecoense-SC score at least twice in 23%; Vasco in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
Vasco goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chapecoense-SC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market reference | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 5.33 |
| Draw | 4.32 |
| Vasco | 1.59 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 08 Nov · 05:14 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Feb 26 | VascovsChapecoense-SC | 1 – 1 |
Chapecoense-SC: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chapecoense-SC (Home · 16 matches) | Vasco (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.62 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Chapecoense-SC's home record; away stats use Vasco's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.