Chapecoense-SC vs Mirassol — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Chapecoense-SC
26%
Draw
28%
Mirassol
46%
Expected goals
1.09–1.52
Chapecoense-SC · Mirassol
Mirassol win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (10.2%), 1–2 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Mirassol win is 0–1 (10.2%).
Chapecoense-SC score at least twice in 30%; Mirassol in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Mirassol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chapecoense-SC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 3.56 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| Mirassol | 100.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 31 Oct · 04:34 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | MirassolvsChapecoense-SC | 1 – 1 |
Chapecoense-SC: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chapecoense-SC (Home · 15 matches) | Mirassol (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 73.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 73.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Chapecoense-SC's home record; away stats use Mirassol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.