Chapecoense-SC vs Internacional — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Chapecoense-SC
28%
Draw
28%
Internacional
44%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Internacional win 44.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Internacional win. Expected goals 1.18–1.58 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–2 (8.6%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Chapecoense-SC (Home · 16 matches) | Internacional (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.62 | 2.41 |
Home stats use Chapecoense-SC's home record; away stats use Internacional's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.