Chapecoense-SC vs Fluminense — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chapecoense-SC
22%
Draw
26%
Fluminense
53%
Expected goals
0.97–1.75
Chapecoense-SC · Fluminense
Fluminense win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–2 (9.8%), 0–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Fluminense win is 0–2 (9.8%).
Chapecoense-SC score at least twice in 26%; Fluminense in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
Fluminense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chapecoense-SC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market reference | 22% | 26% | 53% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 26% | 53% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 4.32 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| Fluminense | 1.83 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Apr 26 | FluminensevsChapecoense-SC | 2 – 1 |
Chapecoense-SC: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chapecoense-SC (Home · 14 matches) | Fluminense (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 71.4% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.71 | 2.87 |
Home stats use Chapecoense-SC's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.