Chapecoense-SC vs Athletico-PR — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Chapecoense-SC
25%
Draw
27%
Athletico-PR
48%
Expected goals
1.07–1.63
Chapecoense-SC · Athletico-PR
Athletico-PR win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Athletico-PR win is 0–1 (9.3%).
Chapecoense-SC score at least twice in 29%; Athletico-PR in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Athletico-PR goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Chapecoense-SC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market reference | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 3.77 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
| Athletico-PR | 2.01 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | Athletico-PRvsChapecoense-SC | 2 – 0 |
Chapecoense-SC: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Chapecoense-SC (Home · 13 matches) | Athletico-PR (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 69.2% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.62 | 2.79 |
Home stats use Chapecoense-SC's home record; away stats use Athletico-PR's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.