Bragantino vs Chapecoense-SC — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bragantino
76%
Draw
15%
Chapecoense-SC
9%
Expected goals
2.36–0.69
Bragantino · Chapecoense-SC
Bragantino win 76% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.6%), 1–0 (11.2%), 3–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Bragantino score at least twice in 69%; Chapecoense-SC in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Chapecoense-SC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bragantino goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market reference | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 76% | 15% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Bragantino | 1.28 |
| Draw | 6.03 |
| Chapecoense-SC | 9.33 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Bragantino
| 28 Jan | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Corinthians | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Athletico-PR | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Mar | A | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 3 May 26 | Chapecoense-SCvsBragantino | 1 – 2 |
Bragantino: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Bragantino (Home · 15 matches) | Chapecoense-SC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.3% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.73 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Bragantino's home record; away stats use Chapecoense-SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.