Botafogo RJ vs Gremio — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Botafogo RJ
56%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Gremio
19%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Botafogo RJ win 56.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Botafogo RJ win. Expected goals 1.86–0.97 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–0 (10.1%), 1–0 (9.6%). It finished 3–2.
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Botafogo RJ
| 30 Jan | H | vs Cruzeiro | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 3–5 | L |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Fluminense | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Botafogo RJ (Home · 17 matches) | Gremio (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.18 |
Home stats use Botafogo RJ's home record; away stats use Gremio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.