Bahia head into this one in reasonable shape, alternating wins and losses across their last five but holding firm at fifth in the Serie A table. At home, they have been defensively solid, keeping clean sheets in 40% of their matches and conceding under a goal per game on average. Santos, sitting fourteenth, arrive with a mixed away record but carry genuine attacking threat on the road, averaging 1.2 goals per game away from home.

The most striking data point here is Santos's away BTTS rate of 80% and an Over 2.5 rate of 80%, both well above the league averages of 57% and 48% respectively. They concede heavily on their travels, averaging 2.2 goals per away game, which should suit a Bahia side capable of hurting teams at home.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, the form and stats do the talking. This looks like a match with goals in it, and Bahia appear the stronger proposition.