Bahia vs Remo — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bahia
69%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Remo
13%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Bahia win 68.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bahia win. Expected goals 2.10–0.80 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Remo
| 28 Jan | A | vs Vitoria | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Atletico-MG | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Fluminense | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bahia (Home · 17 matches) | Remo (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 58.8% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.65 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Bahia's home record; away stats use Remo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.