Bahia vs Mirassol — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bahia
56%
Draw
23%
Mirassol
20%
Expected goals
1.85–0.98
Bahia · Mirassol
Bahia win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–0 (10.1%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bahia win is 2–0 (10.1%).
Bahia score at least twice in 55%; Mirassol in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Mirassol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bahia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Market reference | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 23% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.71 |
| Draw | 4.02 |
| Mirassol | 4.55 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Mirassol
| 29 Jan | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Remo | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Cruzeiro | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 11 Apr 26 | MirassolvsBahia | 1 – 2 |
Bahia: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Bahia (Home · 14 matches) | Mirassol (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 71.4% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Bahia's home record; away stats use Mirassol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.