🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·22:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| Internacional | 4.23 | 4.23 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketBahia
52%
Draw
26%
Internacional
22%
Bahia 1.58 xGexpected goals0.93 xG Internacional
Bahia win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.2%).
Bahia score at least twice in 47%; Internacional in 24%.
1–1 12.2%1–0 12.1%2–0 10.3%2–1 9.5%0–0 8.6%0–1 6.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Bahia goals · columns = Internacional goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Bahia clean sheet39%
Internacional clean sheet21%
Bahia score 2+47%
Internacional score 2+24%
Bahia score 3+21%
Model vs market
| Source | Bahia | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 26% | 22% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | InternacionalvsBahia | 0 – 1 |
Bahia: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Bahia (Home) | Internacional (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.7% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.27 |
Home stats use Bahia's home record; away stats use Internacional's away record this season.