Bahia vs Internacional — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bahia
52%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Internacional
22%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Bahia win 52.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bahia win. Expected goals 1.53–0.90 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.2%), 1–1 (12.2%), 2–0 (10.5%). It finished 3–2.
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Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bahia (Home · 14 matches) | Internacional (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.57 | 2.43 |
Home stats use Bahia's home record; away stats use Internacional's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.