Bahia head into this one in inconsistent form, picking up just one win from their last five, though at home they have shown a decent attacking threat, averaging 1.7 goals per game. Their BTTS rate of 67% in home fixtures stands notably above the league average of 57%, suggesting they tend to be involved in open, two-way games at Fonte Nova. Gremio, sitting 13th and unconvincing on the road, have averaged just 0.5 goals per away game while conceding 1.4, and their away BTTS and Over 2.5 rates both sit well below the league norm.

With no head-to-head history to draw on, the form and data lean clearly toward Bahia controlling this contest. Gremio's away record is fragile and their attacking output on the road has been poor all season. This looks like a match where Bahia's home advantage is meaningful, and the visitors may struggle to contribute much going forward.