Bahia head into this fixture in inconsistent home form, alternating wins and losses before a draw in their last outing, but they remain a solid mid-table force sitting sixth. Cruzeiro arrive in genuinely impressive away shape, winning four of their last five on the road, though their defensive record away from home is a concern, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per away game with a clean sheet rate of just 17%.

The goal data here is interesting. Bahia's home games see BTTS land 67% of the time, well above the league average of 55%, and Cruzeiro's away fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals in 67% of cases, also comfortably above the league norm of 48%. Both sides carry attacking intent but neither has looked solid defensively in this context.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, this shapes up as an open, goal-friendly contest. Cruzeiro's away form is underappreciated, and this looks tighter than their league position might suggest.