Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Atletico Paranaense
37%
Draw
29%
Atletico-MG
34%
Expected goals
1.26–1.21
Atletico Paranaense · Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Atletico Paranaense score at least twice in 36%; Atletico-MG in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Atletico-MG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atletico Paranaense goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
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Atletico Paranaense
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–3 | L |
Atletico-MG
| 28 Jan | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Remo | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atletico Paranaense (Home · no matches) | Atletico-MG (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 28.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | — | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.07 |
Home stats use Atletico Paranaense's home record; away stats use Atletico-MG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.