🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·21:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.56 |
| Vitoria | 4.95 | 4.95 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAtletico-MG
54%
Draw
27%
Vitoria
19%
Atletico-MG 1.70 xGexpected goals0.95 xG Vitoria
Atletico-MG win 54% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.9%).
Atletico-MG score at least twice in 51%; Vitoria in 24%.
1–1 12.9%1–0 11.0%2–0 10.1%2–1 9.7%0–0 8.3%3–0 5.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Atletico-MG goals · columns = Vitoria goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Atletico-MG clean sheet39%
Vitoria clean sheet18%
Atletico-MG score 2+51%
Vitoria score 2+24%
Atletico-MG score 3+24%
Model vs market
| Source | Atletico-MG | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 27% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Atletico-MG
| 28 Jan | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Remo | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 14 Mar 26 | VitoriavsAtletico-MG | 2 – 0 |
Atletico-MG: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Atletico-MG (Home) | Vitoria (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| Clean sheet | 30.0% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Atletico-MG's home record; away stats use Vitoria's away record this season.