Atletico-MG vs Santos — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atletico-MG
47%
Draw
27%
Santos
26%
Expected goals
1.53–1.10
Atletico-MG · Santos
Atletico-MG win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Atletico-MG win is 1–0 (10.2%).
Atletico-MG score at least twice in 46%; Santos in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Santos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atletico-MG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market reference | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 2.06 |
| Draw | 3.49 |
| Santos | 3.61 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atletico-MG
| 28 Jan | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Remo | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | SantosvsAtletico-MG | 1 – 0 |
Atletico-MG: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Atletico-MG (Home · 14 matches) | Santos (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 78.6% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.86 | 3.29 |
Home stats use Atletico-MG's home record; away stats use Santos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.