Athletico-PR vs Fluminense — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Athletico-PR
43%
top pick
Draw
30%
result
Fluminense
27%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Athletico-PR win. Expected goals 1.41–1.11 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.5%), 1–0 (10.4%), 0–0 (9.5%). It finished 3–3.
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Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Athletico-PR (Home · 15 matches) | Fluminense (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 46.7% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Athletico-PR's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.