🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·14:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR | 2.29 | 2.29 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| Fluminense | 3.51 | 3.51 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAthletico-PR
42%
Draw
30%
Fluminense
27%
Athletico-PR 1.42 xGexpected goals1.12 xG Fluminense
Athletico-PR win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.5%).
Athletico-PR score at least twice in 42%; Fluminense in 31%.
1–1 14.5%1–0 10.1%0–0 9.3%2–1 9.1%2–0 7.7%0–1 7.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Athletico-PR goals · columns = Fluminense goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Athletico-PR clean sheet32%
Fluminense clean sheet24%
Athletico-PR score 2+42%
Fluminense score 2+31%
Athletico-PR score 3+17%
Model vs market
| Source | Athletico-PR | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 42% | 30% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 30% | 27% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | FluminensevsAthletico-PR | 3 – 2 |
Athletico-PR: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Athletico-PR (Home) | Fluminense (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 27.3% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.55 |
Home stats use Athletico-PR's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season.