Flamengo arrive in Curitiba in commanding form, dropping just two points from their last five Serie A outings, and their away record this season has been particularly impressive. They are averaging nearly two goals per game on the road while keeping clean sheets in nearly a third of those fixtures, pointing to a side with genuine attacking depth and tactical discipline away from home.

The goals data is where this fixture gets interesting. Flamengo's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals at a rate well above the league average, suggesting they tend to open games up regardless of venue. Athletico-PR at home, however, have been notably stingy, conceding under a goal per game and keeping clean sheets in over a third of home fixtures. That defensive solidity could suppress Flamengo's typically high-scoring road trips.

With no H2H history to lean on, this matchup reads as genuinely difficult to call. Flamengo look the stronger unit overall, but Athletico-PR at home with that defensive record means this looks tighter than a glance at the standings might suggest.