Athletico-PR vs Bahia — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Athletico-PR
44%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Bahia
28%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Athletico-PR win 44.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Athletico-PR win. Expected goals 1.57–1.22 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Athletico-PR (Home · 17 matches) | Bahia (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.71 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Athletico-PR's home record; away stats use Bahia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.