Westerlo vs Beveren — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Westerlo
46%
Draw
25%
Beveren
29%
Expected goals
1.80–1.26
Westerlo · Beveren
Westerlo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (8.0%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Westerlo win is 2–1 (8.0%).
Westerlo score at least twice in 52%; Beveren in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Beveren goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Westerlo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Westerlo | 2.07 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Beveren | 3.31 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Beveren
| 9 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genk | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Westerlo (Home · 4 matches) | Beveren (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Westerlo's home record; away stats use Beveren's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.