Standard Liege head into this derby in decent shape, taking seven points from their last five to consolidate fifth place, but their home record carries a sting — averaging just 0.9 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.2, they have been more vulnerable on their own patch than their league position implies. Their home BTTS rate of 58% sits above the league average, yet the low scoring output points to tight, scrappy affairs rather than open encounters.

Charleroi arrive in strong recent form, winning three of their last four away from home, and their head-to-head record in this fixture is worth noting — two wins from the last three meetings against Standard. Despite sitting eleventh, they have shown a capacity to hurt teams on the road, averaging 1.2 goals per away game.

This looks tighter than a fifth-versus-eleventh matchup might suggest. The data points toward a competitive, low-scoring derby with Charleroi undervalued as visitors.