Standard Liege vs Antwerp — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Standard Liege
39%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Antwerp
34%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Standard Liege win 38.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Standard Liege win. Expected goals 1.42–1.30 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.1%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–0 (8.4%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Standard Liege
| 8 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Antwerp | 1–0 | W |
Antwerp
| 9 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Genk | 4–4 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Standard Liege (Home · 3 matches) | Antwerp (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Standard Liege's home record; away stats use Antwerp's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.