Mechelen head into this fixture in dismal form, failing to win any of their last five league games and looking increasingly vulnerable at home. Their attacking output has been modest this season, averaging 1.2 goals per game in home fixtures, and their defensive record offers little comfort either. A clean sheet probability of just 24% at home underlines how exposed they have been.

St Truiden arrive as the form side, sitting third in the table and carrying genuine momentum. Their away record shows a solid defensive foundation, conceding just 1.0 goals per game on the road, and they have kept opponents scoreless in 18% of away trips. With no head-to-head history to draw on, we lean on the underlying numbers.

Mechelen's BTTS rate of 65% at home is notably above the league average of 54%, which points to an open game despite the low-scoring tendencies of both sides. The visitors look undervalued here given their league standing versus Mechelen's recent struggles.